Doing the Math
Mon, November 17, 2008 at 02:08PM I was pretty angry after reading the article about the rise in threats against Obama. School kids chanting "assassinate" should be suspended. Towns and schools employing biased administrators who subsequently infringe on First Amendment rights should be sued. Backwoods hicktown general stores in Maine hosting assassination pools should be stomped into the ground by a herd of flatulating moose. I was flabbergasted by how little our nation has evolved since 1992...since 1968...since 1861. But then I started thinking, have I just fallen victim to another media hype story? Are the 15 or so examples listed in the article really that indicative of the pulse of white America? And since when are schoolchildren's chants or cowardly notes left on windshields worthy of national news?
I thought Karen Sternheimer summed up the race issue fairly well in this article. Especially when she writes, "...we shouldn't take this milestone [Obama's election] to mean that racism is no longer an issue in the United States. In fact, this election brought racism out of its usual hiding places." Those hiding places are all over America, in Pittsburgh, in Alabama, in Idaho, in Maine. But according to CNN's Election Center, over 66.7 million voters chose Obama compared to McCain's 58.3 million, for a total of 125 million votes cast. I don't have the actual demographic of that vote at my fingertips, but if it's anything like 2006, when blacks made up 41% of registered voters who turned out, (as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau) that would be the equivalent of 51.3 million voters, of which 95% voted for Obama, according to a USA Today exit poll. That equates roughly to 48.3 million black voters who voted for Obama (by 2006 standards), which means the other 18.4 million voters would have had to come from non-black sources, of which whites make up the vast majority (52% of the remaining 59%) Averaging out the 7% of Hispanic and Asian voters to 64% for Obama (66% Hispanic to 62% Asian), it means about 5.6 million voted democratic, leaving roughly 12.8 million white voters who voted for Obama. By 2006 standards that would have only equated to 20% of the white vote, but we know that the actual numbers among white voters were 55% for McCain and 43% for Obama. So what that tells me is either the black vote surged this year in support of Obama or the white vote declined out of apathy for McCain. In truth it's probably a combination of both factors, which means this election was based more on race than the media ever led us to believe. Certainly straight politics were a factor too, but it's certainly alarming to see the vote split
along such clear racial divides. I know my numbers here are flawed but I think they're close enough to draw some general conclusions, and they suggest we may be in for more aberrant behavior from disgruntled whites in the future.
Joey |
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